Parameter uncertainty in an air defence missile model: A sensivity analysis study

The study was conducted within the project Technical Threat Systems Analysis. The main purpose of this study has been to make a preliminary investigation of potential methods based on Sensitivity Analysis (SA), in order to be a support in the process of model development, analysis and use. SA is used to increase the confidence in the model and its predictions and provide a powerful tool in an integrated approach for model development and performance evaluation. In this report we emphasise methods that have potential to analyse the sensitivity of dynamical systems and in order to evaluate the proposed SA methods a case study was defined. The chosen case for this study was a simplified model of a 3-dimensional (3-D) Surface to Air Missile (SAM) against an aerial target. In order to define the case to be studied by different SA methods, a set of model parameters and output signals were selected and studied. Local and global SA methods have been applied on the SAM model and the overall conclusion of this study was that SA has a strong potential to be a useful tool in evaluating a model in terms of how parametric uncertainties affect the output of missile analysis systems. Results from these SA methods are presented in this report.