Strategy for the unexpected 2

Authors:

  • Tunberger Johan
  • Blomqvist Jan
  • Andersson Bengt
  • Granholm Niklas

Publish date: 2004-01-01

Report number: FOI-R--1132--SE

Pages: 76

Written in: Swedish

Abstract

Commissioned by the Ministry of Defence, the TOF-project (Operational Capabilities of the Swedish Total Defence) gives a second opinion on current and projected defence capabilities. An earlier report primarily covered possible strategic challenges to Sweden and Northern Europe in the near term. With its analytical tools and concepts the present report widens the scoope also discuss strategic freedom of action in international crisis and conflict management as well as the possibilities to adapt the Swedish Armed Forces to changing circumstances in a longer time perspective. A number of hypothetical future security "scenes" illustrate possible strategic challenges and direct to the conclusion that Swedish military strategy should be robust. From this, two complementary, strategic first principles are given, which could form a basis for discussing strategic freedom of action in both the near and the long term perspective as well as Swedish participation in international operations. The over-arching conclusions is that the must be a balance between the three perspectives. With the right balance, synergies can be developed. A second conclusion is that the Armed Forces must shorten the lead times in procurement of equipment. Only so sufficient flexibility to respond to security political changes and variations in resource allocation can be achieved.