NR-hot 2010

This report briefly discuss a select number of issues concerning events related to nuclear weapons 2010 that are judged to be important during the coming years. USA and Russia both published documents concerning their nuclear posture and doctrine during 2010. In the American Nuclear Posture Review nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism are given the highest priority. The Russian military doctrine is similar to their ten year old doctrine as far as nuclear weapons are concerned. Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in case of an attack with conventional weapons that is threatening the very existence of the state. The New START, when ratified, give some leeway for the nuclear capabilities that are under development in Russia and do not significantly impede the American development of missile defences and conventional warheads on strategic delivery platforms. It is after all a treaty for strategic stability and not absolute nuclear parity. In South Asia there is a nuclear arms race in progress. The progress made in Pakistan indicate an ambition to enlarge the arsenal, first and foremost to keep a credible minimal deterrence towards India's developing capabilities. China is also improving its arsenal, developing strategic submarines and land-mobile missile systems. The potential nuclear arsenal in North Korea is estimated to about a dozen weapons based on the possible production of weapons grade plutonium. This estimate could be questioned after the revelation of centrifuges enriching uranium. The development in Iran could in the long run threaten the credibility in the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.