Risk-estimate distance computations - artillery and mortars

FOI has been commissioned by FMV to develop risk-estimate distances for four different weapon systems. The main aim is to use the program AVAL to generate tables with risk-estimate distances for friendly soldiers and civilians in the case of danger close actions with ? 8 cm mortar m/84 with svinggr m/80 ? 12 cm mortar m/41 with 12 cm svinggr m/86 ? 15,5 cm howitzer 77B with 15,5 cm sgr m/54 ? 15,5 cm howitzer 77B with 15,5 cm sgr m/77 The risk-estimate distances were generated for the 0,1 % and 10 % probability of severe and non-severe injury respectively. De resulting risk-estimate distances varied between 0 m and 245 m depending on the weapon system, distance and protection level as well as the choice of impact dispersion and number of missiles in the mission. The resulting risk-estimate distances for a single grenade with dispersion were much lower than comparable distances in other publications. By either assuming zero dispersion for a single grenade or by increasing the number of grenades used the computed risk-estimate distances were increased. In order to generate a realistic risk-estimate distance table for the Swedish Armed Forces, it has to be decided what type of fire mission scenario that should be used as input to the AVAL simulations.