Changing Arctic - a concern for the Swedish Armed Forces?

This report discusses if and how climate changes in the Arctic could lead to increased calls for military presence in the Arctic within the coming twenty years. Departing from how climate changes are assessed to progress alongside trends in security policy, possible effects concerning the Swedish Armed Forces, the importance of the Arctic environment to military operations and aspects of the units' impact on the environment, are discussed. Climate change modeling in the Arctic region is difficult, but analyses of data emerging in recent years indicate a climatological shift. This shift is characterized by an increase in average temperature which, for example, has caused changes in the extent, thickness and age composition of the sea ice. Given the prognoses of a sustained global warming, it is likely that the changes in the Arctic will continue and that the interest for, and presence, in the Arctic also intensifies. The shrinking sea ice mass has implications for shipping, navigation, fishery and exploitation of natural resources such as oil and minerals. The North-East and North-West Passage have been passable and this possibility could become more frequent in the future. The shrinking sea ice mass, along with increasing temperatures, also causes an increase in biological production explaining why fish populations are expected to grow. Increasing temperatures also cause reduced glaciers, changes in lake ice and permafrost to thaw. This also leads to that natural resources that used to be impossible to reach now could become accessible. But infrastructure and buildings are at risk of becoming damaged or falling apart. Although access to oil and gas is improving, great difficulties for production, access and crisis management persists to a large extent. A peaceful development in the Arctic is plausible, and conceivable differences can be monitored and managed through multinational organizations and international law. However, increased tensions and conflicts cannot be completely ruled out. There are three main reasons for Sweden to become military involved in the Arctic: a major armed conflict; patrol and supervision, and search and rescue operations. A major armed conflict in the Arctic over the control of natural resources or strategic routes cannot be omitted, but seems less likely since the Coastal states have a mutual interest in keeping the area open for exploitation and safe shipping. However, less tensions and increased commercial presence could lead to an increased need for supervision and patrol. Sweden could then be asked to participate. As shipping increases north of the Polar Circle (Swedish included), Sweden could be tasked to support marine, air search and rescue operations. An increasing number of tourist cruises further underlines this. Operations in environmental disasters could also require Swedish participation. Considering the sensitivity of the Arctic ecosystems and increased exploitation of oil and other primary products, such needs can be expected to grow. Out of the potential tasks for the Swedish Armed Forces in the Arctic region, outside Sweden's borders, the most probable one is the support to the Coastal statemarking of presence and the supervision of territories. This is, however, not to say that this is a likely task.