Yearly report 2016 - dispersion in air, ground and water

In 2016 has the project Dispersion in air, soil and water carried out development of dispersion models and associated activities. The overall aim has been to give the civil emergency preparedness and The Swedish Armed Forces opportunities to use the best possible dispersion models to produce relevant information for decision-making for a CBRN event, with the primary aim of education, exercise and training. A propagation calculation consists of a chain of models. Models to calculate the source strength hand over to one or more distribution models, which in turn leave over to models calculating the effect on humans or the environment. The models should have the capacity needed to respond to the scenario being studied, e.g. exercise. Therefore, it is necessary to be able to handle models with different degrees of complexity in which the questions are different. Studies performed during the project period include, e.g. ensemble methods for uncertainty estimates, aerosols in the atmosphere mainly for long-range transport, inverse methods, dispersion in soil with a focus on the interface to deposited material. Keeping an eye on research elsewhere and collaboration with other research institutions are essential for the maintenance and development of research quality. Participation in conferences and seminars is a part of this. Harmo 17 in Budapest was such a conference. A field experiment in Dugway, Utah was an opportunity to participate and where exchange of information was an important part. During the period 2014-2016 a cooperative project through the EDA together with FFI (Norway), the DGA (France), INERIS (France), and the University of Sussex (Great Britain) under the project name MODITIC was pursued. In 2016 planning for an upcoming EDA project MODISAFE started with the goal of the project starting in 2017.