Operational Level Ground Combat Assessment Methodology - Interim Report 2018

This report contains results from work in the project "Assessment of ground combat efficiency at the operational level" in 2018. The project is part of the "Weapons & protection systems" research programme. The objective of the project is to find and develop methods for assessing the ground combat efficiency of units at the operational level. A central topic is what methods and models are needed for performing such assessments. The need for this work is driven by the changes that have come to pass since the Cold War era. The operational environment has seen a considerable reduction in force volume, increased performance in some key technological military capabilities, and a growing number of multifaceted and complex potential threats. Planning procedures have changed in the Armed Forces. Activities that contribute to assessment capacity have decreased generally across the board. Technological advancements offer new possibilities. An overview of the activities within the Armed Forces that the models and methods should support is given in the report. Different methods to model ground combat at an operational level are described in the report, using a taxonomy developed for casualty estimation methodologies. In particular, Lanchester's equations and agent-based models are reviewed.