Prediktion av främmande ubåtars framtida position


  • Schubert Johan

Publish date: 1997-01-17

Report number: FOA-R--96-00296-3.4

Pages: 25

Written in: Swedish


In this project we have studies methods for prediction of future events in connection with antisubmarine warfare. The prediction aims at the next few hours and is intended for the tactical commander. The idea is to develop a method that can recognize a sequence of incoming intelligence reports. The method is based on a comparison with historical data material. When we receive a new sequence of reports they are analyzed with the method. If we find any similar historical sequences they are used to deliver a prediction about future position. A statistical analysis based on a simulation of the method shows that the probability of a correct prediction was at best 54%, with an accuracy in predicted position of 5 kilometeers and in predicted time of 48 minutes.

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