FoRMA. The human i RMA: Development of decision methods and decision processes. 12 scenarios of decision making in the future

Authors:

  • Wikberg Per (red./editor)

Publish date: 2001-03-15

Report number: FOA-R-00-01818-201

Pages: 64

Written in: Swedish

Abstract

With the aim of focusing on human aspects in the development of future command and control systems, it is necessary to study how different systems operate in conjunction with each other and the methods and organisational solutions that might be applied. The prerequisites for decision making today are judged to vary on a broader scale than before. In some situations it is necessary to make quick decisions, even if these are not in every aspect ideal. One consequence is that other methods for decision-making than the traditional rational alternative generating methods are required. In this study, some alternative methods for decision-making are suggested. Some theories of decision-making, deriving from the behavioural sciences, are translated into "manuals" of the same type as the "manual for appreciation" found in different military regulations. Using these manuals, a number of scenarios concerning future decision-making were described. In each scenario the consequences on technical decision support systems, decision-making methods and organisational solutions are discussed. The major conclusions are: 1) Focusing technical development on solely traditional decision-making methods is not sufficient. 2) The possibility of reducing personnel in decision teams must be analysed from case to case. 3) Management in detail from the highest levels of command and control will be both possible and commonplace in the future. Based on discussions and conclusions from the analysis, the following is suggested: 1) To initiate development of methods for evolutionary evaluation, testing and research. 2) To work out new staff regulations were a spectrum of decision-making methods are defined. 3) To initiate work aiming at defining other conceptual, symbolic languages for the representation of a situation other than the traditional tactical situation, e.g political, ethnical, religious or demographic aspects. 4) To develop principles of how to integrate political and military command and control. 5) To define which tasks are possible to give to civilians, according to international law, in a conflict situation.