Proceedings from the FOI-seminar "Imitation - hot och löfte". Thought Contagion in the Dynamics of Mass Conflict. By Aaron Lynch. Stockholm 6th September 2002

The evolutionary contagon of solf-spreading ideas, or thought contagions, is introduced and applied to major topics in conflict dynamics. ldeas beliefs are found to self-propagate by some surprising means, such as inducing evangelism, by manipulating imitation rates, by intimidating adherents of alternative ideas into silence, by refutation resistance, by deterring dropouts. Even fairly subfle differences in the transmissivity, receptivity, and longevity of ideas may compound into large and intense deological movements. Examples are found in religious wartare, Nazism, terrorism, US unilateralism, and the ideologies behind the September 11 ~ 2001 event. The effect of thought contagions on the proliferation and possible use of nuelear weapons is also discussed. The paper concludes that thought contagion analysis offers important new insights into the dynamics of mass conflict, as weil as potential strategies in reducing mass conflict.