Crisis dynamics and window of opportunity for military violence

A vital part of Swedish security policy is considerations on how and to what extent flexibility and adaptability for a possible change for the worse in international relations should be built into the Swedish defence organisation. This report contains some results from historical studies concerning that subject. A vital part of the background information is that the international attitude of today is far more opposed against war than the situation was a hundred or fifty years ago. However a conclusion that there will be eternal peace is to rash. Still military actions in our vicinity could be possible in some future and they could even be of direct concern for Sweden. The report reminds of the factors that determine the window of opportunity for a possible aggressor. International reactions are often more vital than military force relative the pretended victim. A result from analysis of historical evidence is a set of circumstances that indicates how upward spiralling can cause conflicts to develop and increase in intensity. A further result of a wide historical experience is that most of the conflicts that re-challenge do so in a time that is less than four years from the beginning of the original conflict.