The Ukrainian Dilemma: Relations with Russia and the West in the Context of the 2004 Presidential Elections

The report stresses Ukraine´s importance for the stability and security of Europe, which lies, basically, in the fact that it is the largest country in Europe after Russia, and because of its geopolitical position between the post-Soviet and Euro-Atlantic spheres of onfluence. Recent relations with Russia, NATO and the EU are discussed in the context of the ongoing NATO and EU enlargements processes. Relations with Russia have strengthened considerably during Putin´s first term, while Ukraine´s integration in the West has been obstructed by political scandals and the incomplete reform-process in Ukraine. The 2004 presidential elections in Ukraine are likely to develop into a battle between advocates of a more pro-Russian foreign policy course and advocates of a more pro-Western foreign policy. Although there are factors that limit the actual influence of the elections, most notably the proposed changes of the constitution, which aim to transfer political power from the president to the parliament and the government, and the actual Ukrainian economic dependence of Russia, the elections will nevertheless be an important benchmark for the state of democracy in Ukraine.