Indicators of gathering conflicts

Succesful command and control is based on the collected experiences of former crisis. Therefore it is desirable to collect and reuse all these experiences in so-called case databases. With case based reasoning it then should be possible to get automatic indications when a current situation is about to get out of hand. Based on this hypothesis our present work is an attempt to find ways to develop specific, mathematically formulated models from a more conceptual reasoning through generic situation and event models. As an example the course of actions of the riots in Göteborg at the EU summit in June 2001 is used, and to some extent also the March 2004 events in Kosovo. The method might be used with Impactorium as a computation and presentation platform. With this tool, which is developed at FOI, for situation and threat analysis, future possible events are structured due to their probability and their impact on the development of the undesired state that we want to avoid.