Future African Security over a 20-year Perspective

This report explores the strategic future development in Africa over a ten- to twenty-year perspective. The report takes its departure in Africa's heterogeneity, recognising great differences between regions and states. An appreciation for this heterogeneity is central for all attempts at strategic projections since it partly explains and partly clouds the future image of Africa. The differences with regard to wellbeing, trade, political stability, democratic development, foreign and security policy relations etc, can be sources of conflict as well as for regional cooperation. The report therefore elaborates on Africa's regional actors, followed by a discussion around possibilities for and barriers to regional cooperation on the continent. This is followed by a review of political, economic, military, social and environmental issues. After this, a discussion around central external actors, such as the EU, USA and China, is conducted. The report closes with a concluding discussion around Africa's security situation from a 20-year perspective. The report has been prepared by the African Security Studies Team at the Swedish Defence Research Agency as an input to the Swedish Armed Forces' Long-term planning process.