Basic Technology Development Assessment: Application and Final Report

The project Assessment methods for basic technology development consequences in a system and capability perspective is a project within the Strategic research programme. The project aim is to develop methods to assess and analyse the development of basic technology and consequences for military systems and capabilities. The project had two phases: analysis and development. The analysis phase investigated different assessment methods and external and internal examples of basic technology assessments. The project analysed a number of assessment methods that are used both nationally and internationally and a preliminary evaluation was performed. The development phase performed development of assessment methods and a number of assessment methods were proposed for further validation and application. Validation of the different proposed methods was performed by testing on basic technology areas. Three proposals for combined methods have been studied further. The validation shows that the investigated methods have pros and cons in different circumstances. Expert knowledge in technology areas is always needed. Traceability exists in several methods. The assessment methods must be trained many times to get high quality methods and results. Knowledge and information are different qualities in the assessment. They are not always accessible or intelligible even for an expert group. A mixture of different assessment methods is probably the best workable approach. The report ends with experiences of assessment projects and an application example of assessment of the development of mobile phones and mobile computing.