Perils Accompanying the Moment of Promise

This study examines the political and security developments taking place in North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. It is confined to the events of the Arab Spring starting in late 2010. The aim is to generate a deeper understanding of the Arab revolts and how they are likely to shape the security environment in the region. By investigating key political events and their main causes, the study seeks to distinguish patterns in the events to date in terms of security, as well as some future trends from a security perspective. While the immediate focus is on broad security and defence matters, albeit excluding the current military intervention in Libya, a number of the aspects touched on also link to 'softer' security factors. In addition, the study seeks to explain the country-specific contexts in order to increase understanding of the events taking place. The main research questions tackled are whether the current uprising in North Africa has made the region more or less stable (in terms of security), and the implications the popular uprisings will have for the future security and stability of the region. The study builds on primary and secondary sources and interviews carried out with experts and scholars based in the area, as well as nterviews with scholars and specialists on North Africa. The study concludes with suggestions for further research. A standalone memo based on this study provides further policy recommendations (Perils accompanying the moment of promise: policy summary and recommendations').