A Rude Awakening. Ramifications of Russian Aggression Towards Ukraine


  • Niklas Granholm
  • Gudrun Persson
  • Johannes Malminen
  • Jakob Hedenskog
  • Carolina Vendil Pallin
  • Anna Sundberg
  • Johan Eellend
  • Johan Norberg
  • Carina Lamont
  • Tomas Malmlöf
  • Mike Winnerstig
  • Kaan Korkmaz
  • Märta Carlsson
  • Mikael Eriksson
  • Niklas Rossbach
  • Susanne Oxenstierna
  • Bengt-Göran Bergstrand
  • Ulrik Franke
  • John Rydqvist
  • Erika Holmquist
  • Fredrik Westerlund

Publish date: 2014-06-16

Report number: FOI-R--3892--SE

Pages: 90

Written in: English


  • Russia
  • Ukraine
  • Crimea
  • energy
  • sanctions
  • economy
  • international law
  • Maidan
  • Turkey
  • China
  • Syria
  • Iran
  • EU
  • United States
  • NATO
  • United Nations
  • Baltic Sea
  • dependency
  • geopolitics
  • interdependence
  • world order
  • natural gas
  • Putin


The main purpose of this study is to examine the wider implications of Russia's aggression against Ukraine with a broad analytical perspective. While the effects of the crisis in the region of Crimea and eastern Ukraine have received much attention, there has so far been less analytical focus on the effects beyond the region and on the possible ramifications for the international system. In this study, we put forward the proposition that there is no way back to a status quo ante. The contours of a new situation in strategic affairs can be clearly discerned, but the long-term impacts and effects are yet to be seen. The study can be read in several ways. The first chapter summarises some of the possible effects of the crisis and asks to what extent we are facing a systemic shift in world affairs. The rest of the study is divided into two main parts. Part one: Setting the Scene, gives a background and analysis of the underlying factors and drivers of the crisis from a Ukrainian, Russian and an EU perspective. Part two: Implications, firstly analyses Russian military operations in Crimea, followed by consequences for the Ukraine. A thematic approach, in the areas of international law, economy, energy and sanctions, follows. The next chapter explores the security policy and strategic consequences. Lastly, we analyse some implications for key actors, regions and conflicts.