Horizon scanning regarding the Defence and Security sector performed for the Swedish Fortifications Agency
Publish date: 2014-07-23
Report number: FOI-R--3897--SE
Pages: 65
Written in: Swedish
Keywords:
- Horizon scanning
- Swedish Fortifications Agency
- defence policy
- security
- policy
- Swedish Armed Forces
- preparedness
- crisis management
Abstract
This horizon scanning was commissioned by the Swedish Fortifications Agency and performed by the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) during April and May 2014. It aims to identify relevant features, trends, and events in the context of four main areas covering the Swedish defence and crisis management, namely, defence policy, security policy, the Swedish Armed Forces, and preparedness. In essence, the horizon scanning highlights the forthcoming directions and trends of each area in order to create a comprehensive picture of future needs, risks and possible choices. The report is based on a literature review, a workshop and on interviews. The literature review identified relevant information (e.g. studies, reports, instructions, doctrine, blog posts, etc.) in each area. Meanwhile, on-going discussions ensured relevant focus and boundaries within FOI by consulting analysts and researchers in the appropriate subject areas. The report has hence been produced interdisciplinary. Researchers and analysts from the departments of Defence Analysis, CBRN defence and security, and Defence and Security systems have contributed to the study. In order to shape the form and content of the horizon scanning a workshop was held on May 5, 2014, with representatives from the Swedish Fortifications Agency and FOI experts in the four reviewed areas. Furthermore, interviews with various external experts from the National Defence College, the Swedish Armed Forces and defence politicians were performed, which thereby have, informally and formally, contributed to the result. To sum up, the world faces increased complexity and many uncertainties, which will shape and challenge future security and defence policies as well as our ability to meet those challenges. Many global trends, such as population growth, urbanization, economic dependencies, and the renaissance of geopolitics, contribute to more complex and in some cases interacting security challenges. These trends also contribute to increased risks of unexpected events. As its manifestations and consequences increases, the Swedish Fortifications Agency, its clients and customers will have to respond to them, accordingly and appropriately.