Methods and criteria for human vulnerability and lethality analysis
Publish date: 2015-12-22
Report number: FOI-R--4155--SE
Pages: 24
Written in: Swedish
Keywords:
- Lethality analysis
- human vulnerability
- fragmentation effects
- blast effects
- small arms lethality
Abstract
This report provides an overview of the criteria and models that FOI's research activities within FoT has studied in more detail during the year and that FOI are using for human vulnerability analysis studies. The work has been focused on conventional weapons effects that mainly includes blast effects and penetration effects from both fragments and small arms projectiles. The report also gives an example of the vulnerability assessment for humans FOI completed in 2015 and work on further development of lethality analysis methodologies. A number of simple criteria for different pressure effects exist today, covering eardrum rupture, lung injury and death. These are based on the pressure maximum peak value and its duration. For more complex blast events, e.g. in enclosed buildings in which pressure is reflected several times, it is better to use a Blast Test Device (BTD) to measure the pressure experimentally and then calculate the risk of injury with the Axelsson's model. FOI has regained the ability to use both a BTD and Axelssons model during 2015. There are a number of simple criteria for penetrating fragments based on the impact energy. The most well-known is the 80 J-criterion which was developed during the 1890s. A slightly more modern criterion is Sperazza-Kokinakis which is computed as a function of hit body part and the target's tactical situation. For experimental studies the effects from fragments is often documented using witness packs of aluminum. The aluminum plates catches the fragments and shows the penetrative properties of the fragments. Alternatively, high-speed video can be used, that documents the fragments speed as well as the size and shape on impact. By calculating the energy or impulse at impact, the result may be related to various energy or velocity criteria. Models for the analysis of small arms lethality is not as general as the models for fragments. The most common methods for small arms are relative measures that can be used to compare projectiles with each other but do not provide a Pkill value. One method that gives a Pkill is the Expected Kinetic Energy which is similar to the Sperazza-Kokinakis but that is designed for small arms projectiles and that requires input from tests with gelatin. Work is ongoing to update and improve models for both fragments and projectile penetration in the V/L/S code AVAL.