Annual report 2014-2015 - Dispersion in air, soil and water
Publish date: 2015-12-31
Report number: FOI-R--4213--SE
Pages: 28
Written in: Swedish
Keywords:
- Dispersion models
- CBRN
- invers models
- EDA
- decision support
Abstract
During 2014-2015 the project Dispersion in air, soil and water has pursued development of dispersion models and associated activities. The main objective has been to make available for civil authorities and The Swedish Armed Forces the best possible basis for decision support in case of a CBRN event with the primary aim of education, training and practice. A dispersion calculation requires a chain of models. Models for source estimation deliver data to one or several dispersion models which in their turn deliver data to models that estimate effect on humans or the environment. The models should have the capacity that corresponds to the scenario that is studied for e.g. training. Thus a range of models with different level of complexity need to be handled as the questions inherent in the scenarios are different. Examples of development during 2014-2015 are: Models for estimating source strength from pressure condensed gas. Also the mathematical foundation for inverse modeling is set. A platform that permits dispersion models to be delivered as a product to training systems is under development and have during 2015 enabled the delivery of products via separate orders. A study of the difficulties and the possibilities to model dispersion of C- and R-substances in soil and groundwater has been delivered and also a study on hypothetical threat from C-agents with dispersion calculation and analysis. During 2014-2015 an EDA project was ongoing together with FFI (NO), DGA (FR), INERIS (FR) and the University of Sussex. The goal is to create a data base with validated data that is suitable for validating different types of dispersion models specifically heavy gas dispersion. The project MODITIC is to be finalised in the spring 2016 and in parallel the planning has commenced for a continuation project MODISAFE to be launched in 2017.