Method for assessing risk distances from indirect fire of unguided munitions

There are several methods available for determination of risks relating to individual warheads. These tools rarely offer the ability to calculate risks for cases with several warheads fired nor when several weapons are used. A model with such an ability would be able to assist in assessing risks for own personnel and third person in live fire exercises and missions. In Sweden, configuration of risk zones are described for exercises in SäkR and for missions in SkjutR. The model presented in this report is quantitative in its character, taking both burst point spread and distribution of warhead effects in consideration, which differs from the established methods. The presented model can be used in tools for comparing risk zones according to established methods and assessments of the actual risks. Comparisons of this type could indicate if the risk zones are optimal, conservative and can reduced, or give high risks and should be expanded. The method could also be used in operationalised tools or handbooks for missions. The model can also give information of the expected damage to own troops by friendly fire. Thereby being able to weigh risk for own personnel to the gains of the fire mission.