A Preliminary Planning Tool for Interaction with Influential Actors based on Paraconsistent Logic

Interaction with influential actors is essential during international operations. Currently, however, commanders only have limited support in planning and performing these interactions besides their own understanding of the situation. In particular, commanders need better planning tools to manage inherent conflicts among actors. The report describes a planning tool that uses paraconsistent belief integration to guide analysts' attention towards actors' relations, beliefs, and group identification, which may be important to consider when planning the interaction. Contrary to classical logic, where contradictions are not allowed, paraconsistent logic can represent and still reason with contradictions. The planning tool was evaluated in a representative scenario about disrupting a drug trade between irregular and criminal actors. The available information enables analysts to identify likely suspects in the drug trade, identify actors that have interests that are aligned with the international force, as well as important considerations for planning the interaction with these actors. A preliminary evaluation showed that better planning tools for interaction with influential actors are very desirable for commanders and intelligence officers.