Managing uncertainty in contingency planning

Authors:

  • Christoffer Wedebrand

Publish date: 2020-08-24

Report number: FOI-R--4972--SE

Pages: 32

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • Climate change adaptation
  • crisis management
  • contingency planning
  • civil defence
  • total defence
  • uncertainty
  • methods for robust decision-making.

Abstract

The uncertainty of the future poses challenges for contingency planning as well as for other kinds of planning. This report presents some central conclusions from a research project investigating the feasibility of using methods for so-called robust decision-making in Sweden. The methods are called robust since they are meant to lead to good results despite considerable uncertainties. In addition, these conclusions are compared to reflections previously made by the Swedish National Defence Research Institute. Four guiding principles are suggested, based on reviewed literature: - Accept and be clear about the uncertainty. - Use bottom-up-processes. - Complement with flexible solutions. - Formulate scenarios with different levels of concreteness dependending on the purpose of the scenarios.