Sea Power in the Indo-Pacific - the struggle over the future world order

This report is a descriptive overview of the maritime ambitions, capacities and behaviour of China, India, Russia and Japan in the Indo-Pacific, both today and in a ten-year perspective. Its central conclusions are that all four states have raised their ambitions, strengthened their capabilities and expanded their actions in the region, which in turn has a major impact on regional and global security. China strives to become a major naval power with the ability to dominate its maritime neighbourhood and to project power over long distances. China's naval modernisation is proceeding very quickly and on a large scale, while its military presence beyond the immediate neighbourhood is expanding. The modernisation of China's naval forces is the central driving force behind the development of security policy in the Indo-Pacific, affecting the naval development and actions of the other three states. India's ambition is to be a leading power in the Indo-Pacific, and has become increasingly active through military exercises with other states, not least the United States. At the same time, India faces financial and defence industrial challenges that may hamper the pace of its naval development. Japan is also developing its naval capabilities and strengthening its operations in the IndoPacific, but is limited by its constitution and sluggish economic growth. Russia's operations in the region have been gradually strengthened and are supported by improved logistical conditions, a new division of responsibilities and the modernisation of its high-seas fleet. The Indo-Pacific is expected to become an even more central arena for naval strategic and global security policy development in the coming ten years.