Rare metals and great power rivalry - an overview about the risk for new resource wars

Authors:

  • Niklas Rossbach

Publish date: 2023-08-17

Report number: FOI-R--5478--SE

Pages: 76

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • rare metals
  • rare earth metals
  • battery metals
  • critical raw materials
  • critical minerals
  • strategic resources
  • new technology
  • the fourth industrial revolution
  • deglobalisation
  • a security policy raw materials paradox
  • strategic competition
  • great power rivalry
  • the US
  • China
  • the EU
  • resource wars
  • great power conflict
  • cold war

Abstract

This report analyses the importance, from a defence and security perspective, of so-called rare metals - a label used to denote a group of raw materials that are of strategic importance in view of the technological evolution. The report looks at the meaning of this convoluted term and at the consequences of new trends in global politics for the demand for rare metals. The report also discusses the risk for new resource wars. What substances are included under the label rare metals depends on whether one asks the raw materials market, the high tech or mining industry or different governments. A substance can be 'rare' in the sense that trade is limited, production is limited or the use of the metal is limited, in each respective product, in which they are used. What the rare metals have in common is that they are all associated with the latest digital technology or green technology, i.e. technology that enables renewable energy. The metals are also of interest to the great powers, and in particular the US and China, since the two rivals have entered a technological arms race. In order to be able to develop and produce the latest technology leading economies need stable access to rare metals. This is, of course, also true for the EU. Given the strategic competition and increased tension between authoritarian and democratic states great powers might not want to rely on market forces to ensure stable access to the rare metals they need. Hence, there is a renewed risk of resource wars.