EU security and defence policy in transition - An analysis of drivers and possible implications beyond 2030

In the context of political consensus among its member states, the European Union (EU) responded assertively to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The EU levelled economic sanctions against Russia, decided to support Ukraine with military equipment, and initiated several measures to strengthen the European defence industrial base.. However, political unity among EU member states cannot be taken for granted. Therefore, this study engages with possibilities, uncertainties and challenges related to security and defense policy cooperation within the EU beyond 2030. Based on an analysis of interviews and literature on EU security and defense policy, this study identifies important drivers of security and defense policy cooperation in the EU beyond 2030. The identified drivers are characterized by high levels of both impact and uncertainty on the trajectory of the EU. Some of the internal drivers are the internal power dynamics and the Franco-German cooperation, the institutional preferences of member states, and EU enlargement. The four primary external drivers include the threat from Russia, US leadership and engagement in Europe, China's behavior and great power rivalry between the US and China, and the consequences of climate change. Alongside this, the study sketches three future scenarios and analyses how the identified drivers may affect developments beyond 2030. The study also presents and discuss key drivers likely to have a high impact towards 2050.