Russia as a military opponent in 2050 - four possible pathways

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 changed the European security landscape. It is apparent that Russian action and future development is key to Swedish and European security. It is therefore vital to analyse plausible Russian future developments, what could lead to them, and their consequences. In this report, four scenarios explore Russia as a military adversary in the year 2050: Russia as expanding Great Power, The (third) time of troubles, Theocratic elite with holy warheads, and The green threat. The scenarios also serve as a basis for discussion about the impact of future developments in Russia on Swedish security. The report highlights the developments that may lead towards the scenarios and discusses the implications for Swedish security. This report supports the future strategic environment assessment of the Swedish Armed Forces and explores a range of alternative futures as a way to work with future uncertainty. It also identifies important factors and indicators of change in the future strategic environment.