Swedish security policy and the Armed Forces' operational environment in the space domain 2050

Authors:

  • Malin Karlsson
  • Andreas Johlander
  • John Welsh
  • Jonatan Westman

Publish date: 2024-09-10

Report number: FOI-R--5638--SE

Pages: 41

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • future studies
  • futures research
  • strategic foresight
  • space
  • space domain
  • security policy

Abstract

Focusing on Swedish security policy and the Swedish Armed Forces' operating environment, this study constitutes a first step in exploring the military domain in space by 2050. The aim is not to explore the most likely future but to consider a range of different plausible futures. Four scenarios facilitate the exploration. The scenarios draw pictures of the future where critical infrastructure, environmental impact, and the number of actors and cooperation between them could have a great impact on the operating environment. Swedish security policy could be shaped by policy goals such as protecting norms for the usage of space, influencing cooperation with the commercial space industry, and participating in international security communities to protect critical infrastructure or avoid the escalation of weaponized conflict. In the scenarios, these goals could be reached through various means and methods including security cooperation, fiscal policy instruments to influence the space industry, and political policy instruments such as space diplomacy. Finally, the study highlights the importance of further exploration of the future of space and the implications for Swedish national security.