A New Generation of Forward Defence: NATO in the Baltic states
Publish date: 2025-06-19
Report number: FOI-R--5765--SE
Pages: 82
Written in: English
Keywords:
- Baltic states
- Canada
- deterrence
- enhanced Forward Presence
- escalation
- Estonia
- forward defence
- Forward Land Forces
- framework nations
- Germany
- host nations
- Latvia
- Lithuania
- NATO
- strategy
- UK
Abstract
At the Madrid Summit in 2022, NATO Allies agreed to scale up the Alliance's forward presence along the eastern flank to brigade-sized units as part of an increased emphasis on deterrence by denial. The flexibility of the concept has resulted in the framework nations and host nations in the Baltic states opting for three different models of the Forward Land Forces (FLF). This study examines the design of the FLFs in the Baltic states and analyses the key political and military considerations behind the choices made. The study reveals that considerations relating to the military credibility of the forward posture and Alliance solidarity have become more prominent after 2022 than before. At the same time, constraining factors, such as national resource limitations and a desire to maintain national political control, are evident in the design of the multinational brigades and their command and control. However, the risk of escalation appears to be less of a concern than before. Whether the FLFs contribute to deterrence by denial is dependent on developments on both sides of the NATO-Russia border as well as on other parts of NATO's evolving strategy. In particular, the deterrent value of the FLF is linked to Allies' capacity to deploy further reinforcements and to undertake the necessary defence reforms to fulfil NATO's capability targets.