Analysis and refinement of plans in effect based planning


  • Johan Schubert
  • Mattias Wallén
  • Johan Walter

Publish date: 2007-09-05

Report number: FOI-R--2307--SE

Pages: 18

Written in: Swedish


  • effect based approaches to operations
  • EBAO
  • effect based planning
  • EBP
  • effect based execution
  • EBE
  • cross impact matrix
  • Dempster-Shafer theory


In this report we present how a cross impact matrix may be used in effect based planning for plan evaluation, plan refinement and generation of alternative plans. The purpose of using a cross impact matrix is to find inconsistencies in plans developed within the effect based planning process. The cross impact matrix consists of all activities, supporting effects, decisive conditions and the military end state of the plan. We develop methods for analyzing activities and evaluating and refining plans within effect based planning. In addition we use a Dempster-Shafer theory based sensitivity analysis to find decisive influences within the plan.