Impact on Health from Heat Wave in Umeå

Authors:

  • Henrik Carlsen
  • Karl Henrik Dreborg
  • Karin Edvardsson Björnberg
  • Joacim Rocklöv
  • Maria Vredin Johansson

Publish date: 2009-11-20

Report number: FOI-R--2811--SE

Pages: 39

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • climate change
  • health impacts
  • socio-economic scenarios
  • heat wave

Abstract

Climate change will have an impact on many sectors of society. The work presented here focuses on how climate change wiill impact peoples´ health. During the autumn 2008 and during the spring 2009 several projects within the research programme Climatools worked together on a case study on health effects of a changing climate in the Umeå region. The study had two objectives. The first objective was to test an early version of the tools: a tool for development and use of socio-economic scenarios and a tool (an algorithm) for calculating the needs for health care in the event of a heath wave. Socio-economic scenarios are a means for building consistent and credible descriptions of societal contexts. The effects of climate change will be larger in the long run and thus it is necessary to study the impacts of climate change on images of possible future societies instead of the society of today. A secondary objective has been to lay out the founsational ground for future case studies where other tools are tested, especially tools for economic and ethical assessments. The main activity in the case study was a workshop held in Umeå in January 2009. The workshop gathered participants from the municipality of Umeå, officials from the region, the business sector and media. In preparing the workshop interviews were conducted with representatives from the municipality and the region. The task of the workshop was to discuss consequences and potential proactive measures in order to cope with potential future heat waves. The effects of the heat wave were modelled after the heat wave that hit Europe during summer 2003. In the first stage of the workshop it was assumed that the future heat wave affected today´s society. For the second stage of the workshop, a socio-economic scenario was constructed. In this second stage the effects of the heat wave were assessed against the socio-economic scenario wjhich among other things included changed demographics. The workshop was evaluated via a questionnaire to participants. The work was also evaluated by the research team. The questionnaire as well as evaluation made be the researvh team showed that the workshop format and scenarios (climate and socio-economic) functioned well in order to stimulate a problem oriented discussion in general and in particular stimulated the work with finding options to cope with the challenges caused by the heat wave. The scenarios together with the constructed heat wave acted as vehicles for increased understanding of future challenges due to climate change. The idea of first working with effects on today´s society and thereafter work with a different socio-economic situation was found to be effective. A problem though is that it is difficult to communicate socio-economic scenarios in a convincing and trustworthy way. The aouput from the algorithm acted as a means for creating better understanding of the potential effect of a heat wave.