The Drone War in Pakistan – Security Political Consequences
Publish date: 2013-04-11
Report number: FOI-R--3643--SE
Pages: 44
Written in: Swedish
Abstract
The use of armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), so called drones, for targeted killings has grown rapidly in the past five years. This is due to among other things technological developments, the supposed precision and cost efficiency of drones as well as the advantage for states not to have to put soldiers at risk in a conflict zone. With the drone program in Pakistan, the US has for the first time used drones on a large scale. The purpose has been to defeat al-Qaeda, weaken the Taliban movement and stabilize Afghanistan and Pakistan. Since 2004 more than 350 drone attacks have been carried out in Pakistan. The death toll is estimated to be at least 2,400, including a significant number of civilians. During the Obama administration drone attacks have increased more than fivefold in comparison with the Bush years. The US is accused of breaking international law, both when it comes to the legitimacy of violence as well as the laws of war. Dozens of leaders of armed groups (al-Qaeda, TTP, IMU, the Haqqani network) have been killed. The ability of al-Qaeda to operate from Pakistan has decreased significantly. Whether al-Qaeda as a transnational movement or idea has been weakened because of the drone attacks is uncertain. The capabilities of militant groups with local roots have, however, not been weakened by the targeted killings. The drone attacks can instead prove to be counter-productive and result in increased radicalization and recruitment to armed groups. The frequent use of drones has likely contributed to growing anti-Americanism in Pakistan. In spite of large sums of foreign aid provided to the country, three out of four Pakistanis regard the US as an enemy. More than 80 % of the population oppose that drones are used in Pakistan.