Grey zone scenarios in war and peace

Authors:

  • Daniel Jonsson
  • Camilla Eriksson
  • Jenny Ingemarsdotter
  • Niklas Rossbach
  • Christoffer Wedebrand

Publish date: 2023-06-12

Report number: FOI-R--5447--SE

Pages: 61

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • civil defence
  • total defence
  • crisis management
  • psychological defence
  • security of supply
  • civil protection
  • future scenarios
  • explorative scenarios
  • grey zone
  • grey zone problems
  • hybrid threats
  • hybrid warfare
  • non-linear warfare
  • information warfare
  • influence operations
  • disinformation
  • economic warfare
  • intelligence threats
  • cyber threats
  • sabotage
  • crisis
  • security crises
  • war

Abstract

Through twelve scenarios, this report illustrates how antagonistic grey zone threats could play out, today and in the future, under different conflict levels, in interplay with different kinds of crises (e.g. environmental or economic crises or industrial hazards) and societal changes (e.g. internationalisation, digitalisation and polarisation). The scenarios also explore how antagonistic grey zone threats could evolve before, during and after acts of war. The scenarios aim to be thought provoking and exemplifying and should be seen as an input to long-term development of policy and strategy, rather than as assumptions for defence planning. The report also summarises research results and conclusions regarding the development of the Swedish total defence from the five-year long research project 3F:s for civil defence in the grey zone (2018-2022) funded by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. The conclusions involve the conditions for total defence planning such as the will to defend the country, the private sectors involvement, the importance of stability regarding approaches and long-term planning perspectives, e.g. through future oriented monitoring and situational awareness. It also involves priorities, ability to act, responsibility and endurance in crises and war, pros and cons associated with introducing a so called contingency staircase, as well as planning for civil defence at different system levels.