Annual report 2022 - CBRN Disarmament and Non-proliferation
Publish date: 2023-08-22
Report number: FOI-R--5482--SE
Pages: 25
Written in: Swedish
Keywords:
- disarmament
- non-proliferation
- chemical weapon
- biological weapon
- nuclear weapon
- space
- missile
Abstract
In 2022, global tension has increased further, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February has greatly destabilized the security policy situation. Russian threats and false accusations against Ukraine have brought increased focus on CBRN-related issues. The invasion of Ukraine has had a negative effect on virtually all international work related to CBRN, including within the multilateral regimes. Russian threats to use nuclear weapons have been unprecedented. Russia's irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and references have posed significant challenges to continued efforts in arms control, disarmament and nuclear non-proliferation. The extension of the New Start agreement between US and Russia, which expires in February 2026, is also under stress: the US has concluded that Russia has not fulfilled its obligations under the agreement in 2022, since the inspections and bilateral meetings stipulated in the agreement have not taken place. At the same time, China appears to be expanding and diversifying its nuclear arsenal at a higher rate than previously assumed, and both North Korea and Iran have continued to expand their nuclear technological capabilities. The work in 2022 has been characterized, as before, by major contradictions within both the biological and chemical weapons conventions. Within the chemical area, the reason is primarily the repeated violations of the convention that have been committed in recent years, which indicate that there are countries that intend to use chemical weapons when their purposes are benefitted. This affects most of the work within the OPCW and divergent opinions on many fundamental issues. With respect to the biological disarmament and non-proliferation sphere, the international scene has been dominated by Russia's repeated allegations against the US and Ukraine, claiming that they would be in non-compliance with the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. As expected, the allegations further contributed to the tense geopolitical situation that partly characterized the Ninth Review Conference of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention, which nonetheless concluded with an agreement on a new work programme for the next four years.