Russian Military Capabilities at War: Reflections on Methodology and Sources Post-2022

Authors:

  • Maria Engqvist
  • Carolina Vendil Pallin
  • Emil Wannheden
  • Kristina Melin
  • Tomas Malmlöf
  • Jonas Kjellén
  • Johan Norberg

Publish date: 2024-04-18

Report number: FOI-R--5502--SE

Pages: 66

Written in: English

Abstract

For more than twenty years, the Russia and Eurasia Studies Programme at FOI has sought to gauge, from a ten-year perspective, what Russia could muster in terms of military capability. Although the Russian information landscape has undergone several periods of transformation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the task of assessing a country's military capability has always come with inherent challenges in terms of sources and methodology. In 2022, the Russian invasion of Ukraine ushered in a wave of censorship and repressive measures unprecedented in the history of the Russian Federation. This, and the fact that the war has made the object of study into a moving target, has fundamentally affected the research field. In the first five independent chapters, authors Jonas Kjellén, Johan Norberg, Tomas Malmlöf, Kristina Melin, Carolina Vendil Pallin, and Emil Wannheden outline the opportunities and challenges presented by studying Russia's military capabilities as consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian War. This was undertaken to establish a fresh foundation, one that delineates the necessary prerequisites for studying Russian military capabilities both during wartime and in the future. In the sixth and final chapter, Maria Engqvist and Carolina Vendil Pallin summarise and analyse the volume's key takeaways. They conclude that the need to understand the preconditions for Russia's political, financial, societal, cultural, and military trajectories remains vital, if not crucial. The way ahead for the study of Russia's military capabilities is more resource-intensive than before the start of the war. Both accessing and compiling sources have become more laborious. In addition, since the war defines the dimensions of Russia's policy choices, the lifespan of sources is often more limited. It is necessary to delve into untested methods and conduct cross-disciplinary research, as well as deepen and expand international cooperation between researchers with a genuine interest in the research field.